Renee and Stefan: February 2007

01 February 2007

Where's the cold?

We know it's not in Switzerland. This year Switzerland had the warmest January ever recorded - since measurements began in 1864. The average daily temperature was 5ºC warmer than the average for Januaries in 1961-1990 - and this in spite of a cold snap a week ago that finally delivered snow to the city (for the first time this winter).

Global warming, you think. Or at least I did. That's almost certainly at the root of it, but global warming is, globally, a slower process than this. The graph here (from ncdc.noaaa.gov)

shows that temperatures have gone up about 0.5º since 1980. So it's unlikely that this year, the global average went up 5º. So if Switzerland was 5º warmer, somewhere else in the globe had to be proportionally cooler, right? Where was it?

A search through Google News for "record weather January" reveals that Switzerland is not the only place with unusual weather in 2007. The record-breaking warmth in Switzerland was found all across Europe, including Scotland, Germany, and even all the way to Moscow and Turkmenistan. (In Moscow, January was also wetter than usual.) The same search reveals that California had a very dry January, while the Northeast USA was warm like Europe. Pakistan was drier than usual (no rain at all). Washington and British Columbia had colder and snowier winters than usual.

Of course, this news search reveals only records. Maybe vast swaths of air above oceans, where no one lives, were just a little cooler than usual, balancing out the warmth in Europe and the NE USA.

Another thing it reveals is that global warming is indeed better called "climate change." It was warmer here, but in California, Pakistan, and the PNW it was different in other ways.

Presumably, cold air was supposed to flow to Europe this January from somewhere else (like the North), but it didn't. What about the global weather patterns changed to cause this, and where did the cold air go (or stay)? I don't understand global weather patterns well enough to answer this. This video of global cloud movement helps, and so does this image, found within an informative but long article at gsfc.nasa.gov. But neither one really shows the diagrams I'd like to see: "here's what usually happens in January," and "here's what happened this year." Please let me know if you have found those diagrams. =)

One thing that's certain is that ocean surface temperatures (which are also related to ocean non-surface temperatures and ocean currents) are playing an important role - and I don't understand those very well at all. Are there people who do understand this stuff? Is there an awesome global weather console somewhere, showing actual and expected real-time weather? I doubt it. This article on the IHT says that Greenland's ice is melting faster than anyone expected - and that there are currently no computer models that can explain it.

Do you have thoughts on climate change? More information about what's actually happening? Leave a comment.

posted by Stefan Pharies at 22:15

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